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Prediction for CME (2024-10-03T13:26:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-03T13:26Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33724/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the NW within the outflow of the halo CME: 2024-10-03T12:48Z associated with a filament eruption lifting off near N25W52 or so seen best in SDO/GOES 304. The CME is not seen in STEREO A well, due to poor image quality and a data gap.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-06T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SIDC
Prediction Method Note:

SIDC URSIGRAM 41004
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 Oct 2024, 1257UT
...
Another CME was observed in C2 images at 13:37 UTC on Oct 03, on the NE
limb. This CME was possibly associated to an eruption near the SIDC Sunspot
Group 217 (NOAA AR 3848). It has a projected width of about 104 degree and
a projected speed of about 500 km/s (as detected by CACTUS tool). With the
bulk of the mass strongly directed towards the NE, it will mostly miss the
Earth, but a glancing blow may be possible on Oct 06.







  
  
    
    
      
        
        
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
            
              
              
              sidctech@oma.be
              
              
              2024-10-05T21:48:50
              
              
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                        2024-10-06T18:00:00

Lead Time: 20.20 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2024-10-05T21:48Z

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